I won't believe any prices until quoted by a Nintendo or Sony representative. Gamespot said that PSP could run up to $500, and PS3 up to $700. Both figures are ridiculous.
Because of piracy issues, I highly doubt they'll release blank UMD's, especially because they'd have to make a UMD burner as well, as I don't think they're the same format as DVD's. The cost to the user would be huge, since the demand would be very low compared to that of CD and DVD burners. I also don't think that UMD movies will cost any more than their DVD counterparts. Especially because you can't fit nearly as much information onto a UMD as you could onto a Dual Layer DVD, which is what most movies are released as. Not only that, but they have to look at it through a consumer point of view. Most people are going to buy their movies as DVD's, because they already have a DVD player. Movies on UMD will be a novelty thing, and only a small portion of PSP owners will actually buy movies on UMD, so Sony will have to sell at a competitive price to make the format sell well. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see new releases in UMD format retailing at $14.95, and after a number of months, drop to $12.95, and even $9.95.